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Bad news for those clinging to hopes that Derrick Ward or Earnest Graham might have some fantasy value this year. Greg Olson, Tampa Bay’s offensive coordinator, has stated…
We went into the season kind of with the mentality of let’s work Cadillac in. Maybe we can rotate him with the other backs. But as good as he’s looked here early on in the season, I think it’s time we become more committed to Cadillac Williams as a full-time guy.
Tampa Bay running back Derrick Ward seems to think the team will be using a 2-2-1 rotation in the backfield this season. This means he would get two series, then Earnest Graham would get two series, and finally Cadillac Williams would get a series (with random carries throughout the other two players series’.) While Ward says this will keep all of the running backs fresh and that it seemed to work with the Giants last year, it’s probably not the news you wanted to hear if you had already drafted (or planned to draft) any of these guys for your fantasy team. At this point Ward and Graham make for borderline RB2 plays and are probably more suited as bye-week fill-in’s or injury insurance.
Going into this weekend, the Baltimore Ravens were holding opposing team’s running games to a ridiculous 2.9 yards per carry. One week and a brutal beating by the defending Superbowl champs later, that number is up to 3.4 as they were manhandled in the trenches by Brandon Jacobs and crew. Let’s look at more from that contest and the rest of the action from week 11…
Last week I came through with my second great feature pick of the season (I know, only two through ten weeks is a little embarassing!), as Vikings running back Adrian Peterson absolutely torched the Packers defense to the tune of 225 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown. I ended up the week with a respectable 15-5-3* record, helped out by stellar, three-score games from Thomas Jones and Maurice Jones-Drew, along with a solid performance from Tony Gonzalez and a predictable, lackluster showing by Steve Slaton (could he be hitting the rookie wall?) Although the Jets passing game proved to be non-existant in their demolition of the Rams and Peyton Manning had a huge game against one of the better defenses in the league (ironically, his two best games this season against the Steelers and Ravens…go figure!), I still finished with some fairly good predictions and I hope to do the same this week. For week 11, my sure bet is for Michael Turner “The Burner” to have a big game against a less than average Broncos defense in Atlanta this weekend, so get him in your lineup!
* Hits-Misses-Pushes
To all of our devoted readers (and those who just stopped by for their first time), Happy Halloween! Make sure to go out and get some good candy (not the crappy kind that you hated getting as a kid!) to pass out to the kids tonight…or risk having to clean up toilet paper and shaving cream up in the morning.
Anyways, last week something relatively new happened in the world of FFGeekBlog hits and misses, which was that for the first time of the season, my feature pick did not completely bomb…nor did he do extremely well. For week eight, I recommended that you start Jets running back Thomas Jones at all costs against a Swiss-cheese style Kansas City run defense. If you took my advice, you probably don’t completely hate me…but you’re most likely not making up nicknames for me that include the words “genius”, “psychic” or “super awesome.” Against the Chiefs, Thomas Jones managed a mere 54 yards on the ground and also scored a touchdown, so while his fantasy stats weren’t something to cry about, they also weren’t something to warrant cover space on the revered Hits and Misses column.
After the dust settled though, even with Thomas Jones earning a “push” rating for the week (and J.T. O’Sullivan playing so badly that he lost the starting gig!), I still finished with a solid 16-4-5 (hits-misses-pushes) record, riding upon the shoulders of huge games from Drew Brees, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, along with predictable stinkers from the Colts star receivers. This week I’ll try to continue my trend of solid picks, so here we go…
Last week, I suggested selling high on Kurt Warner (who clearly saved his job for at least one more week by tearing up a dejected Bills defense) and Earnest Graham (who perfectly illustrated my point about his lack of carries being a problem by rushing for just 59 yards on ten carries – a nice average, but a crappy fantasy performance). I advised you to buy low on Calvin Johnson (who remains a buy-low candidate after a very weak day, though the Lions are apparently even worse than I thought they were) and Peyton Manning (who put up respectable numbers – mostly thanks to Sage “Will Never, Ever Be Trusted Again” Rosenfels).
The general consensus on the value of the following players is just plain wrong, which makes them ripe to trade away (if they’re overvalued) or try to pick up (if they’re undervalued).
LaDainian Tomlinson - I’d been holding out hope, but it’s officially time to stop the bleeding and trade him away. The clincher for me came in an interview he gave yesterday in which he talked about his injured toe: “You can’t get it better in one week. There is no such thing; nobody can. If you are injured, you are injured. One week is not going to help. If you take one week off, you might as well take three weeks off.” Translation: Expect plenty of subpar games over the rest of the season. Trade him before memory of his two recent multi-TD games fades; I don’t expect a whole lot more of those the rest of the way. The LT name alone should fetch some nice value in return. (More …)
Last week I advised you to sell high on Reggie Bush, Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown while you still could. The jury’s out on Ronnie Brown since he was on a bye, but I’m going to pull an “I told you so” on Bush (38 total yards, 0 TD, and Deuce is back in action) and Chambers (2 catches, 45 yards, 0 TD).
I suggested that you buy low on Ocho Cinco; little did I suspect that Carson Palmer’s injury would turn out to be worse than everyone thought. As long as Palmer’s OK (looks like he is), I still think the OC will be putting up AOK numbers very soon, and could return to elite status by the second half. I advised trading for Ryan Grant, who had another rough game, but I still think he’ll be fine. And Brandon Jacobs had a bye week.
Here are the players I recommend wheeling and dealing this week:
Kurt Warner - When does a 472-yard, two-touchdown game spark a debate among fans and commentators over whether you should be benched? When you also throw three interceptions and fumble the ball four times. Warner is the sixth-best QB in the league from a purely statistical perspective, but his shaky play against the Jets has to have the coaches wondering whether they made the right call in benching Leinart. Any trade you offer will look impressive – Warner’s gleaming fantasy numbers are sure to make any owner at least think about it, especially if they’re desperate for QB help. But I’ve got my doubts as to whether Warner will be keeping his job for much longer, so I’d unload him while you still can. The key here is finding an owner who needs a QB so badly that he or she is willing to take the risk that Warner gets benched. (More …)
Here are some more questions for week four…and again the theme seems to be surviving a brutal bye week (Detroit, Indianapolis, Miami, New England, New York Giants, and Seattle.)
Jeanne asks: I have a lot of byes this week and quickly need to pick-up….who do you suggest?
Brandon’s take: Hey Jeanne, welcome to the club (of people struggling with bye’s this week.) In terms of a team defense, I think you have to take the team that plays against the St. Louis Rams if they’re available…and just you’re luck, the Buffalo Bills are there for the taking. For a receiver pickup, I’m liking Stuckey these days, as he’s getting plenty of looks from Brett Favre (having a touchdown in each game so far this season doesn’t hurt either!) Bruce had a big week two, plus he had a touchdown last week, but the offense is too inconsistent and there’s no telling how he will do from week to week, even if it is against a week Saints defense. Finally, go with Rober Royal as your tight end, as he’s going against a Rams defense that is just as bad as their offense. (More …)
Tonight’s game between the Browns and Giants will wrap up week two of the preseason, but before we jump into week 3, here are some reactions to the games that took place over the weekend…
As for the rest of the game, the poor play of the Bengals added insult to injury, with quarterback Carson Palmer playing badly (6 of 13 for 50 yards and an INT) and no one of fantasy relevance doing anything great for Cinci. There was one guy on the team though that took advantage of the Johnson injury, plus a hamstring injury to T.J. Houshmandzadeh that kept him out of this game. The Bengals second round pick in this years draft, receiver Jerome Simpson, finished the game with five receptions for 114 yards. As with many preseason one-hit-wonders though, make this guy become a repeat performer before even considering him on draft day.
As much as this game sucked for the Bengals, it was a great game for the Lions, especially their passing game, which seems to have hit the ground running since the beginning of this preseason. Jon Kitna completed all three of his pass attempts for 76 yards, including a 27 yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson (who finished with three catches for 76 yards). The Lions running game is still a bit mysterious, but rookie Kevin Smith looked good in limited action (four carries for 19 yards) and should still be considered the front runner to win the starting job come opening day. (More …)
