Squish (268)
E-roc (127)
Shirley (66)
Jeff (53)
Tommy (53)
Mal (51)
Ken (44)
Amir (40)
TJ (29)
Here are our “Hits” and “Misses” for week thirteen, listing players you want to make sure are in your lineup, as well as those you might consider shelving for the week (or at least lowering your expectations!) With the playoffs right around the corner, you most likely need a win badly this week to clinch that first round BYE (or to even get a playoff spot!) Hopefully our list this week can help you get over the hump and into your league’s tournament, where you will surely bring home the bacon because you frequent such an awesome and knowledgeable fantasy football website! Alright, enough tooting of our own horn, let’s get to the hits and misses for this week and GOOD LUCK!
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Hits & Misses - Week 13: Win or Go Home
Brandon
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Top Five WR and TE for Week 2, 2009
Matt
Here’s the second half of my top-five series for this week – the first half was on the QB and RB positions. Normally it would all be one post, but it’s hard to predict when I’ll have free time to write a post with this two-month-old around. Parenthood – you gotta get you some of this!
Wide Receiver
- Andre Johnson (@TEN): Call his week 1 performance (4 catches, 35 yards, no scores) what you will – a blip, early-season rust – just don’t call it a sign of things to come for Andre Johnson and the potent Texans offense. The Titans gave up a whopping 363 yards through the air last week to the Steelers, and Santonio Holmes and Hines Ward both hit the 100-yard mark. With Kevin Walter back in the lineup, the Texans are back in their comfort zone and ready to pounce.
- Steve Smith (@ATL): The Eagles utterly shut the Panthers down in week 1, intercepting three of the 13 passes thrown Smith’s way. If he’s targeted 13 times again this week, he’s in for a monster game in Atlanta. An angry Steve Smith is a dangerous Steve Smith. Let’s just hope he doesn’t punch anybody. Again.
- Calvin Johnson (vs. MIN): The Vikings offense is a force of nature and its run defense is arguably the stoutest in the league. The only way to stay in the game against them (not that the Lions have a snowball’s chance in hell) is to pass the ball, so pass it they will, and Johnson will probably more or less singlehandedly make the score at least somewhat respectable.
- Randy Moss (@ NYJ): Are the Jets really that good? They sure looked it last week, but if I had to bet their track record against that of the Brady-Moss connection, I’ll take the one that set all those records not long ago.
- Larry Fitzgerald (@ JAC): With Boldin’s hammy better but still not quite healed, the Cards offense should start slowly rounding into shape this week. Until Boldin and Breaston are back to full health, though, defenses will still be able to key on Fitz like they did last week. I can’t list him any higher than #5, but there’s also no way he doesn’t get a spot on this list.
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Wide Receiver rankings for 2009
Brandon
Here is our wide receiver cheat sheet for this season:
- Randy Moss, NE – With Brady back, expect mucho touchdowns again
- Andre Johnson, HOU – He’s a reception machine and racks up the yards as well.
- Larry Fitzgerald, ARI – The age of his quarterback scares me a bit, but Fitz is a monster and would probably produce even with Matt Leinart in the lineup
- Calvin Johnson, DET – The team HAS to do better this year and Megatron should see a boost in his stats
- Steve Smith, CAR – Injury scare seems to have passed.
- Reggie Wayne, IND – Should be one of the more consistent options on this list.
- Roddy White, ATL – He got his money over the weekend and immediately made an impact in the first preseason game. Any scare about White missing practices can be erased now.
- Greg Jennings, GB – He’ll be Rodgers top target all season long.
- Anquan Boldin, ARI – Saying all the right things and claims to be focused on helping the team win…not on getting more money.
- Terrell Owens, BUF – DOWNGRADE! As much as I think he would put up great numbers if healthy all year, I’m wondering if he’ll be able to stay on the field, as he’s already missing practices with a “bum toe.”
- Dwayne Bowe, KC – After being demoted to third string recently for attitude/weight issues, he had a huge preseason game and there’s no reason to move him down at this point.
- Marques Colston, NO – In this high-flying, pass-friendly offense, Colston should see the most passes.
- T.J. Houshmandzadeh, SEA – UPGRADE! Braylon Edwards and Brandon Marshall just keep making the guys right below them on the list look a whole lot more appealing!
- Chad Ochocinco, CIN – UPGRADE! He’s healthy this year and Housh is gone. I’m optimistic he can make the best out of the situation. Apparently he can even kick extra points!
- Wes Welker, NE – Last time Brady was at QB, Welker was a Pro Bowler with eight TD’s and almost 1,200 yards.
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Hits and Misses - Week 16: Take a ride in the PT Cruiser!
Brandon
Of all the cars out there to get a nickname from (see: Cadillac Williams), I’m not sure I would want people calling me the name of one of the worst new vehicles to come out this century, but whatever works I guess! It apparently IS working for Saints running back Pierre Thomas, who has put up some great fantasy numbers over the past few weeks in an offense that is traditionally pass-first (and made a lot of fantasy team managers very happy in the process.) This weekend you should have the PT Cruiser parked right in the RB1 or RB2 slot on your roster when the Saints head to Detroit, helping your team cruise to a fantasy football championship!
Hits
- Pierre Thomas, RB, Saints: Although I recommend a few of our readers sit the PT Cruiser last week, this week my tune has changed a bit. The Saints head to Detroit on Sunday to play a Lions team that has been absolutely dreadful against the run this year, allowing 169 yards per game (4.9 ypc) to opposing tailbacks, while allowing them to rack up 26 touchdowns. With Reggie Bush out of the picture, expect a big day for Thomas.
- Antonio Bryant, WR, Buccaneers: For all of you who snagged Antonio Bryant off the waiver wire in the middle of the season, you have to be loving your decision at this point. In most leagues, Bryant has now racked you up around 300 yards and a couple touchdowns through the first two rounds of the playoffs, and I’m predicting that he’ll continue that trend against a bad San Diego Chargers defense. You know those commercials that ESPN had for the Fantasy Football Hall of Fame? If Bryant comes through this weekend, I think you need to add him for next year’s ads. (More …)
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2009 Pro Bowl rosters announced
Brandon
If you haven’t seen them yet, the 2009 Pro Bowl rosters were announced today and you can see the entire teams here. I’ve already been reading articles mentioning Panthers running back DeAngelo Williams (2nd in NFL for rushing touchdowns, 4th in NFL for rushing yards), Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (leads the NFL in passer rating and touchdown passes) and Texans rookie running back Steve Slaton as the biggest snubs, while listing Jets quarterback Brett Favre (leads NFL in interceptions) and Dolphins running back Ronnie Brown (17th in NFL for rushing yards, got 4 of 10 touchdowns in one game) as the most undeserving of a roster spot. After reviewing the stats, a few other snubs, who will probably make it anyways after guys drop off due to injuries/injury worries/laziness, include Chicago rookie running back Matt Forte and Lions wide receiver Calvin Johnson (tied for 2nd in NFL in receiving touchdowns.) I’ll open it up to the forum for anyone else’s opinions on the selections…
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Hits and Misses - Week 15: Time for an encore
Brandon
In most of my leagues, week 15 means we’re two games away from a 2008 fantasy football championship, so the hits and misses this week are magnified dramatically. In some twist of fate, neither of my best fantasy teams were eliminated in the first round of the playoffs this year, meaning I’m right there with you in using my own advice to get to the next round.
In terms of the action this weekend, it’s not usually my style to piggy back on a player (or players) who had a great game last week, but this weekend when Carolina hosts the Broncos, it’s too good to pass up. DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart had a game for the ages in week 14 and while I don’t expect an exact repeat performance, something close would be nice! Anyways, let’s jump into the hits and misses for the week, starting with the Panthers two-headed monster…
Hits
- DeAngelo Williams / Jonathan Stewart, RB, Panthers (vs DEN): The new heirs to the Smash & Dash nickname played out of this world last week, with both Williams and Stewart breaking the century mark and scoring two touchdowns each against a Tampa Bay defense that had only allowed one rushing touchdown all season! While I don’t expect a repeat of those touchdown numbers this weekend, even against a worse defense, it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see them run for 100 yards and a score each against a Broncos team that is giving up nearly five yards per carry and almost 140 rushing yards per game (and that includes some teams that are MUCH worse at running the ball than the Panthers.) I also need to mention that I recommended to a couple people that they start Jonathan Stewart over Pierre Thomas this week…so let’s hope steps it up and makes me look smart! (More …)
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Top 25 scoring fantasy football players through 13 weeks
Brandon
It’s been 13 weeks since the season started and four since my last posting of the top 25 fantasy football players in the game. As I mentioned last time, this is a list of the top fantasy football scorers so far this season, based on a non-PPR league that Matt and I are in, which follows near-standard scoring rules…
Note: The number in parenthesis is the ranking of the player after week 9.
1 (4). Drew Brees, QB, Saints: Brees has been a yardage and touchdown machine this year, even with his top receiver from last season (Marques Colston) out for a bit. I’m sure he helped many a team into the playoffs this season.
2 (3). Kurt Warner, QB, Cardinals: Warner’s stats were pretty close to Brees’ and while he did throw less interceptions, he fumbled the ball a lot more. However, I’m sure he’s on a lot of playoff bound team’s rosters.
3 (5). Aaron Rodgers, QB, Packers: Packers fans can’t complain about the production they got out of the quarterback after Favre’s departure and they should be happy that they won’t have to worry about the position for another decade or so.
4 (6). Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos: While I was expecting a bit more out of his “favorite” receiver Brandon Marshall, Cutler has been all that fantasy owners could have wished for.
5 (1). Philip Rivers, QB, Chargers: He’s dropped off a bit over the past few weeks, but you can’t really complain considering the receivers he’s passing to. (More …) -
Hits and Misses - Week 9: Brandon Marshall ready to hand out tricks and treats
Brandon
To all of our devoted readers (and those who just stopped by for their first time), Happy Halloween! Make sure to go out and get some good candy (not the crappy kind that you hated getting as a kid!) to pass out to the kids tonight…or risk having to clean up toilet paper and shaving cream up in the morning.
Anyways, last week something relatively new happened in the world of FFGeekBlog hits and misses, which was that for the first time of the season, my feature pick did not completely bomb…nor did he do extremely well. For week eight, I recommended that you start Jets running back Thomas Jones at all costs against a Swiss-cheese style Kansas City run defense. If you took my advice, you probably don’t completely hate me…but you’re most likely not making up nicknames for me that include the words “genius”, “psychic” or “super awesome.” Against the Chiefs, Thomas Jones managed a mere 54 yards on the ground and also scored a touchdown, so while his fantasy stats weren’t something to cry about, they also weren’t something to warrant cover space on the revered Hits and Misses column.
After the dust settled though, even with Thomas Jones earning a “push” rating for the week (and J.T. O’Sullivan playing so badly that he lost the starting gig!), I still finished with a solid 16-4-5 (hits-misses-pushes) record, riding upon the shoulders of huge games from Drew Brees, Clinton Portis, Santana Moss, along with predictable stinkers from the Colts star receivers. This week I’ll try to continue my trend of solid picks, so here we go…
Hits
- Brandon Marshall, WR, Broncos: While Marshall’s numbers may have “dropped off” over the past few weeks (only 18 receptions for 200 yards in the last three games), it’s not because quarterback Jay Cutler was not looking his way. Brandon continues to get more looks than almost any other receiver in the league (possibly the most) and this week, following the bye, playing at home, against a fairly bad Dolphins secondary, I expect a huge performance from my doppelganger (in name only.) Cutler will have a big day, but I think it’s Marshall who reaps the most rewards as he hands out tricks to the Dolphins and treats to the fans. (More …)
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Week 7 Weekend Wrap-up: Running backs gone wild!
Brandon
After staying up late to watch my favorite baseball team lose to the Tampa Bay Rays (!) last night, I’m not sure I’ll be able to handle staying up for what will most likely be a disaster of a game tonight when the Fantasy Football Librarian‘s boys from Denver come into Gillette Stadium to take on the Patriots…but I’ll give it a shot. The good news is that even though the Sox are done and the Pats chances tonight are not all that promising, the fantasy football gods seemed to shine down on me this week and I should pull off some solid victories in most of my leagues (although the fact that Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall having huge games against New England would help many of my teams causes quite the personal conflict!), including a potential victory in which I idiotically started Larry Fitzgerald on a bye. Anyways, enough of my rambling about New England sports and my fantasy teams, let’s get to the action from the weekend that caused my good fortunes, including a few running backs gone wild!
- Tennessee 34, Kansas City 10: I was pretty pumped about this game for one reason…the Chiefs helped me break the FFGeekBlog Hits/Misses cover curse! Kansas City came into this game allowing 180+ yards per game on the ground and what do you know…the Titans nearly doubled that average with 330+ yards. Hopefully you took my advice and started LenDale White (149 yards, 3 TD) and Chris Johnson (168 yards, TD), as you were rewarded heavily. (More …)
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Desperation is a Stinky Cologne: Extreme Sleepers for Week 7 2008
Matt
In a bind? This column is for those of you who, due to injuries or other circumstances, find yourselves with a gaping hole at QB, RB or WR and need a stop-gap player to plug in for one week.Unlike our waiver-wire columns, I’m not advising you to pick these players up if you’re seeking long-term production. Thanks to matchups, injuries, or other favorable conditions, these usually useless players are worth a look this week, but probably aren’t good long-term options.
Note: “% owned” statistics are an average of that player’s ownership percentage in all Yahoo and ESPN leagues, rounded to the nearest percent.
Quarterbacks
Kerry Collins (25% owned) – Normally you’d never even consider starting Collins, but the Titans are playing the Chiefs, so I ask you to consider this riddle: What adds up to six and should get someone fired? Answer: The total number of sacks and interceptions the Kansas City defense has managed so far this season (three of each). That’s dead last in the league, by a lot. Even Collins should be able to put together a decent day.
Marc Bulger (41% owned) – Considering his abysmal numbers so far this season, I’m surprised his ownership percentage is so high – not that I don’t think he has some upside. Dallas will be missing cornerbacks Terence Newman (groin) and Pac-Man Jones (brain), so if he’s ever going to show us a glimpse of his old self, it’ll probably be this week.
Running Backs
Kolby Smith, KC (8% owned) – zOMFG, a starting RB is going to miss a game and his backup will get to be the feature back for a whole game! Quick, everyone run out and get him! Wait, why’s he only 8% owned? Oh, right – the Chiefs are playing the Titans’ solid rush D, and LJ isn’t hurt; he’ll be back next week, so there’s no point in using a roster spot on this guy unless you need him now. But if you’re reading this, single-week plugins are what you’re after, and Smith fits that description perfectly. (More …)
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Sell High, Buy Low: Trade ideas for Week 6 2008
Matt
Last week, I suggested selling high on Kurt Warner (who clearly saved his job for at least one more week by tearing up a dejected Bills defense) and Earnest Graham (who perfectly illustrated my point about his lack of carries being a problem by rushing for just 59 yards on ten carries – a nice average, but a crappy fantasy performance). I advised you to buy low on Calvin Johnson (who remains a buy-low candidate after a very weak day, though the Lions are apparently even worse than I thought they were) and Peyton Manning (who put up respectable numbers – mostly thanks to Sage “Will Never, Ever Be Trusted Again” Rosenfels).
The general consensus on the value of the following players is just plain wrong, which makes them ripe to trade away (if they’re overvalued) or try to pick up (if they’re undervalued).
Sell High
LaDainian Tomlinson - I’d been holding out hope, but it’s officially time to stop the bleeding and trade him away. The clincher for me came in an interview he gave yesterday in which he talked about his injured toe: “You can’t get it better in one week. There is no such thing; nobody can. If you are injured, you are injured. One week is not going to help. If you take one week off, you might as well take three weeks off.” Translation: Expect plenty of subpar games over the rest of the season. Trade him before memory of his two recent multi-TD games fades; I don’t expect a whole lot more of those the rest of the way. The LT name alone should fetch some nice value in return. (More …)
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Top 5 QB, RB, WR and TE for Week 5 2008
Matt
Why not K and DST? Because screw K and DST, that’s why.
Quarterback
- Peyton Manning (@ HOU) – The Houston franchise belongs to Bob McNair on paper, but here in the real world, Peyton Manning owns the Texans (last four games: 297.2 yards on average, 10 total TDs, 0 total INTs). This has bounce-back game written all over it.
- Tony Romo (vs CIN) – He’ll be getting T.O. the damn ball as much as he needs to against the atrocious Cincy defense. If Carson Palmer is able to start, move him to #1. Without Palmer, Cincy won’t be able to score much, which means the Dallas offense will mostly go through Marion Barber.
- Drew Brees (vs MIN) – The solid Vikings defense remains better at stopping ground attacks than aerial assaults, which suits the pass-happy Saints just fine. Receiver Robert Meachem is an emerging star who has taken advantage of Colston’s absence by gaining Brees’ trust.
- Jay Cutler (vs TB) – The Bucs’ secondary has been subpar all season, and they’re likely in for a humbling afternoon in the mile-high city. Drew Brees tore them apart in week 1 to the tune of 343 yards and 3 TDs, and I’d expect something similar out of Cutler.
- Philip Rivers (@ MIA) – Sunny skies, an opposing defense that gives up the 7th-most passing yards per game, and the #2 overall fantasy QB through four weeks… what’s not to like?
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Studs and Duds - Week 5: Don't pass on the Lions
Brandon
Well after a good set of predictions for week two, maybe I should have taken another week off before putting up my next Studs/Duds post. In week four I ended up with only a 9-6-7 (correct-incorrect-push) record as the non-existent Jacksonville rushing attack and Selvin Young did their best to sabotage me. David Garrard’s solid day didn’t help either, but luckily a huge day from Greg Jennings and a good game from Earnest Graham helped me stay above water. As always, I’m hoping to do much better this week, so here you go with your “studs” and “duds” for week five:
Studs
- Jon Kitna, QB, DET: Coming into this season, I had big hopes for Jon Kitna and his dynamic receiving duo, Roy Williams and Calvin Johnson. However, the first few games didn’t quite live up to my expectations. Luckily the team had a bye week to think about their game play and I expect to see them come out in a big way at home against a Chicago Bears defense that is allowing nearly 250 passing yards a game. A touchdown to each of his favorite targets and 275 yards doesn’t seem out of reach.
- Roy Williams / Calvin Johnson, WR, DET: See above. (More …)
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Sell High, Buy Low: Trade ideas for Week 5 2008
Matt
Last week I advised you to sell high on Reggie Bush, Chris Chambers and Ronnie Brown while you still could. The jury’s out on Ronnie Brown since he was on a bye, but I’m going to pull an “I told you so” on Bush (38 total yards, 0 TD, and Deuce is back in action) and Chambers (2 catches, 45 yards, 0 TD).I suggested that you buy low on Ocho Cinco; little did I suspect that Carson Palmer’s injury would turn out to be worse than everyone thought. As long as Palmer’s OK (looks like he is), I still think the OC will be putting up AOK numbers very soon, and could return to elite status by the second half. I advised trading for Ryan Grant, who had another rough game, but I still think he’ll be fine. And Brandon Jacobs had a bye week.
Here are the players I recommend wheeling and dealing this week:
Sell High
Kurt Warner - When does a 472-yard, two-touchdown game spark a debate among fans and commentators over whether you should be benched? When you also throw three interceptions and fumble the ball four times. Warner is the sixth-best QB in the league from a purely statistical perspective, but his shaky play against the Jets has to have the coaches wondering whether they made the right call in benching Leinart. Any trade you offer will look impressive – Warner’s gleaming fantasy numbers are sure to make any owner at least think about it, especially if they’re desperate for QB help. But I’ve got my doubts as to whether Warner will be keeping his job for much longer, so I’d unload him while you still can. The key here is finding an owner who needs a QB so badly that he or she is willing to take the risk that Warner gets benched. (More …)
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More Ask the Geeks - Week 2
Matt
We received a couple more good questions, so without further ado…
Hayes asks: Eddie Royal or Santonio Holmes for week 2 in my 12 man PPR league? Braylon Edwards is my WR1.
Matt’s take: Can’t say I expected to ever be asked this question. While Royal did have a monster game last week and I’m sure you have visions of a repeat performance dancing in your head, don’t expect him to put up too many 100-yard games this season. Cutler obviously loves throwing to Royal and I wouldn’t be surprised if he continues to put up WR3 or even WR2-type numbers for the rest of the season, but Brandon Marshall returns this week and will probably be Cutler’s favorite target for the rest of the season. Santonio Holmes is a top-end WR2 or low-end WR1, especially this week against Cleveland, and is undoubtedly the better start.
Tony asks: Trade proposal in a non ppr league: Tomlinson & Calvin Johnson for Bush and Randy Moss. The rest of the team looks like this: Bush, MJD, Chris Johnson, McGahee, Moss, Galloway, Welker, S. Rice. What do you think given the injuries on the two principles and the QB situation in NE?
Matt’s take: Do. Not. Pull. The. Trigger. Are you kidding, man? Reggie Bush is two or three tiers lower than Tomlinson in value, and won’t give you anywhere close to the consistency that LT will. And while I like Moss more than Calvin Johnson even without Brady, the difference isn’t huge any more, and Johnson has enormous upside. No friggin’ way would I make this trade.
Update: Tony e-mailed me and the trade is actually in the other direction. Luckily for Tony!
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Chad Johnson hurt and other updates from the weekend
Brandon
Tonight’s game between the Browns and Giants will wrap up week two of the preseason, but before we jump into week 3, here are some reactions to the games that took place over the weekend…
- Detroit 27, Cincinnati 10: While the Bengals might be a tiny bit upset that they lost a preseason game, the most painful outcome of this game was that their star wide receiver, Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson, sprained his shoulder while trying to make a catch early in the game. Right now coach Marvin Lewis is saying that he believes Johnson should be ready for the start of the season, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation. Right now I’m probably dropping him down a few spots on my rankings until I know more about the injury.
As for the rest of the game, the poor play of the Bengals added insult to injury, with quarterback Carson Palmer playing badly (6 of 13 for 50 yards and an INT) and no one of fantasy relevance doing anything great for Cinci. There was one guy on the team though that took advantage of the Johnson injury, plus a hamstring injury to T.J. Houshmandzadeh that kept him out of this game. The Bengals second round pick in this years draft, receiver Jerome Simpson, finished the game with five receptions for 114 yards. As with many preseason one-hit-wonders though, make this guy become a repeat performer before even considering him on draft day.
As much as this game sucked for the Bengals, it was a great game for the Lions, especially their passing game, which seems to have hit the ground running since the beginning of this preseason. Jon Kitna completed all three of his pass attempts for 76 yards, including a 27 yard touchdown pass to Calvin Johnson (who finished with three catches for 76 yards). The Lions running game is still a bit mysterious, but rookie Kevin Smith looked good in limited action (four carries for 19 yards) and should still be considered the front runner to win the starting job come opening day. (More …)
- Detroit 27, Cincinnati 10: While the Bengals might be a tiny bit upset that they lost a preseason game, the most painful outcome of this game was that their star wide receiver, Chad “Ocho Cinco” Johnson, sprained his shoulder while trying to make a catch early in the game. Right now coach Marvin Lewis is saying that he believes Johnson should be ready for the start of the season, but we’ll keep an eye on the situation. Right now I’m probably dropping him down a few spots on my rankings until I know more about the injury.
