After watching David Patten go off and validate my decision to declare him a potential shocker for week 14, I'm going with the theory that three really is a lucky number. Or maybe I'm just lazy and only feel like giving you three shocker picks instead of five, since a good portion of our audience is probably out of contention at this point (we take no responsibility for this. If you win, though, we strongly feel that we deserve at least some of the credit, and a portion of your winnings).

As always, here's a brief explanation of my definition of a fantasy "shocker": A player who comes out of relatively nowhere, has a gigantic, multi-touchdown game, becomes the hottest waiver commodity the following week, and then soon sinks back into the relative obscurity from whence he came. Like I've said before, these are long-shot picks and I don't expect to hit on most of them.

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Week 15 begins tonight, as the Denver Broncos go to Houston to take on the Texans, so let's get started with a few early questions from our readers...

Brandon's take: Hey Chris, that's a tough one you have there with your receivers. It's hard for me to tell you to start Engram over Evans, when Evans made my "Studs" list this week. However, since it is the playoffs, you might go with the more reliable Engram in this case. Evans is a home run threat, especially against the Brownies defense, but Engram is pretty good for 8-15 points a week or so. Engram has been producing all season long and actually has more touchdowns than Evans.

In terms of your defenses, I would go with San Diego this week. The Lions have been terrible lately, losing 5 straight, while averaging under 20 points a game and I see the Chargers defense going big in this one at home.

Matt's take: If you're ever going to start Evans, this is the week. He tends to run hot and cold, and since he just had a nice game, he might be ready for a hot streak. He and Edwards should connect at least a five times against Cleveland, and he's always a threat for the long touchdown catch.

Keep an eye on the St. Louis QB situation this week, and if Brock Berlin is starting again, use the Green Bay defense. If not, San Diego's a decent choice.

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Did you survive the first round of the playoffs? Are you still in contention for some consolation prize? Before I get into this weekend's picks, let's take a look back at how last week went. As hard as a few players tried, I still ended up with a pretty solid record. The Buffalo running game, plus my boy Ryan Grant, turned in very solid performances, while the Tony Romo to Jason Witten connection was in full force, even if T.O. was left out of the action. Kevin Jones came out of no where to log multiple touchdowns, while the Buffalo and Houston passing games went huge in the touchdown department...which was NOT expected though. This weekend I'm looking to make perfect recommendations (no misses!), but we'll just have to wait and see how that works out. So without further ado, here are your suggestions that should hopefully propel your team to the next (and possibly final) round of your playoffs...

Studs

Adrian Peterson (MIN): I'm going to go out on a limb and say that last weeks performance by Peterson was a complete anomaly. How else can you explain how the San Francisco 49er's (!!!) held A.Pete to 3 freakin' yards on 14 carries? This week Peterson plays against a soft, inter-conference Chicago run defense, so he'll be looking to re-establish himself as the top back in the NFL.

Joseph Addai (IND): Even with low yardage last week, Addai found his way into the endzone three times. This week, he faces the worst run defense in the NFL in allowing teams into the endzone with the Raiders (21 rushing touchdowns allowed!) Addai should have a field day.

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So I survived the first round of the playoffs in the two leagues I made the playoffs in, in large part due to the performance of Brandon Marshall, Jay Cutler and Ryan Grant...not to mention the Buffalo defense. Hopefully most of our readers can say the same thing and have survived long enough so that this list even matters to them at this point! I didn't want to go off on any tangents about how the Patriots or still undefeated after stomping the Steelers or anything like that, so let's get right to this weeks waiver wire suggestions...

Baltimore (DEF): Just as I expected, the Buffalo defense was one of the top defenses last week against the Miami Dolphins. Their next opponent? The Baltimore Ravens. While the Ravens defense has been decent this season, it hasn't been as good as the previous few years, leading to them being free agents in many leagues. I just snatched them up this morning in one of my leagues and you should do the same.

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On a day when the Patriots crushed the Steelers to move to 13-0 (can we take anything Anthony Smith says seriously now?), one of my proudest (and luckiest) moments was seeing my pre-season sleeper pick, Brandon Marshall, step up and go huge in the first round of my fantasy playoffs.

Brandon Marshall (WR-DEN): 10 receptions, 115 receiving yards, 2 TD, 10 rushing yards

Complementing those stats was the fact that in one of my leagues, I had also started Jay Cutler...so that worked out pretty well. Hopefully our readers had similar luck if everyone drafted Marshall like I recommended! Anyways, Sunday seemed to mark a return to great fantasy stats for most of the regulars, such as Brady, Manning, LT, Moss, and Trent Edwards. Hah...well maybe Edwards didn't return to greatness, but he did have a great game. I guess that's one things the Dolphins are good at...making the opposing quarterback look like Dan Marino. So that's enough rambling, let's get to the top performers of the weekend...

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If you're in a keeper league and your team is out of the playoffs (but your league still allows you to make roster moves), it's time to start thinking about next year. Unlike re-draft leagues, you can't sit back and forget that your fantasy team even exists at this point...because there is always next year, so you need to be prepared. Similar to my concept of a Post-draft Draft that I explained before the season began, I figured I'd draft up a list of players that are poised to break-out (or at least make some kind of fantasy impact) next season, and could be picked up now in preparation...

Quarterbacks

Kellen Clemens (QB-NYJ): Of the quarterbacks on this list, Clemens has had the most experience and hasn't performed all that badly. Even though his team is 3-9, Clemens has kept the team close in a few of the losses and his defense can be blamed for a few others. Clemens should only get better next season with a year of experience under his belt and better chemistry with the skill players.

JaMarcus Russell (QB-OAK): With the least experience of all the quarterbacks on this list so far, Russell could also have the most potential. In his first real experience, Russell played fairly well, going 4-of-7 for 56 yards, but throwing 0 TD and 0 INT. Depending on your league's rules, you may be able to watch Russell play a few more games before making an ultimate decision, but Russell has a chance to be a pretty solid quarterback in the NFL. If you don't scoop him up now, make sure to keep an eye on him in next season's draft.

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I'm a bit ashamed to realize that the last Shocker post I did was for week 11. At least it was a decent one... I correctly predicted big games for Ronald Curry (120 yards) and his QB Daunte Culpepper (a whopping 340 yards, only 1 TD though). The picks of Northcutt, Boller, and Grossman were wrong and stupid.

Here are this week's potentially wrong and stupid picks. I'm pressed for time this afternoon (damn these Thursday games rushing me) so I can only offer three today. As always, here's a brief explanation of my definition of a fantasy "shocker": A player who comes out of relatively nowhere, has a gigantic, multi-touchdown game, becomes the hottest waiver commodity the following week, and then soon sinks back into the relative obscurity from whence he came. Like I’ve said before, these are long-shot picks and I don’t expect to hit on most of them.

Kellen Clemens, QB, NYJ: He'll likely have Coles back, and good things tend to happen against the Browns D. Given that the Browns will be able to score against the Jets, the Man-Formerly-Known-As-A-Genius will be forced to call a ton of passing plays. Expect big yardage, and at least a couple of touchdowns.

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Here’s a look at the guys who spent their time in week 13 doing one of three things: rumblin’ up the player value charts with big performances, bumblin’ through a rough week and making their owners nervous, or stumblin’ badly enough to pretty much wreck their fantasy value.

Dallas Clark, TE, IND: Two touchdowns in week 13 and nine on the season, which is tops in the league. Thanks to yardage, Gates and Witten are still better options in all but touchdown-only leagues, but Clark's a weekly threat to score.

Braylon Edwards, WR, CLE: A string of games against tough opponents had kept his numbers down for the past few weeks, but he blew up in week 13 for 149 yards and a TD against the Cards. And check out his next three matchups: Jets, Bills, Bungles. Look out.

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Going into week 14 of the NFL season, I'm assuming that this is the first round of the playoffs for most managers out there. Hopefully some of my suggestions last week were able to give you that final push to secure a playoff spot (and hopefully they didn't cause you to miss the playoffs!) If you listened to my recommendations and started Justin Fargas or Derrick Ward, you were most likely pleased with your decision. Also performing well was the Colts passing game, especially the Manning to Wayne connection. Then, as expected, Kevin Jones played poorly...although I can't take credit for just how terrible he'd actually be. Three carries for one (1) yard?!!! At least he got 16 receiving yards I guess.

Anyways, there were a few players who apparently didn't read my post last week, like Larry Fitzgerald (didn't even play!), Anquan Boldin (played, but poorly), as well as David Garrard, Laurence Maroney and Willis McGahee, all who had a chip on their shoulder and played much better than I gave them credit for. In my defense though, Maroney got most of his yards through the air...something I actually hope to see more of as a Patriots fan. He's a beast once he starts moving vertically, so what better way to get him going that way then to send him out on a receiving pattern instead of letting him dance around behind the line of scrimmage.

Studs

Fred Jackson / Marshawn Lynch (BUF): At this point, Lynch is considered day-to-day, so keep an eye on this situtation before making any decisions. However, once it has been decided who will start for the Bills, make sure to plug them into your lineup if you can. The Bills are playing a Dolphins team that is allowing nearly 150 rushing yards a game, plus over a score a game on the ground.

Kolby Smith (KC): Although Smith didn't repeat his week 12 performance last week against the Chargers, he has a chance to return to those big stats this week against the Broncos, who are allowing the second most rushing yardage per game in the NFL.

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In case you missed these, I just wanted to give you some updates on the following players...

Travis Henry (RB-DEN): Henry has won his appeal and no longer faces a one year suspension from the league. Apparently his passing of a lie detector test and a hair sample test were enough to convince the league that they screwed up on their own drug test (which seems a little odd, but I guess could happen). This is good news for fantasy managers with Henry on their rosters, as he should produce fairly well as a RB2 or flex player through out the fantasy playoffs with Denver still in the hunt for a playoff spot.

Roy Williams (WR-DET): Williams is expected to miss the rest of the season with a sprained knee. Owners looking to replace him in their lineup should look no further than the rest of the Detroit receiving corps, as Calvin Johnson and Mike Furrey move into the WR1 and WR2 spots on the team respectively, while Shaun McDonald will move in as the slot receiver. With Kitna completing around 23 passes a game, expect all three of those receivers to see plenty of balls going their way in the next few weeks, as the Lions fight for their lives to earn a playoff spot.

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