Why Joseph Addai, not Adrian Peterson, should be #2 on your cheat sheet
"He has the vision of a Marshall Faulk, the power of an Earl Campbell, and the speed of an Eric Dickerson. Let's pray he has the endurance of an Emmitt Smith." - Deion Sanders on Adrian Peterson, 10/14/2007, less than a month before Peterson tore his right LCL in a game against Green Bay.
Adrian Peterson is an exciting fantasy player by any measure. Besting the NFL single-game rushing record in his rookie season was a feat for the ages. Many a fantasy football trophy was won last year thanks to his statistical brilliance. I certainly wouldn't be incredibly surprised if he has an even better season in 2008. Even though I think he has a higher ceiling than any running back in the league, if I were drafting with the #2 pick tonight, I'd be taking Joseph Addai over Peterson (assuming, as I think we can, that LT goes #1 almost universally). Here's why:
- The obvious issue - injury history. His brief career has included the following injuries (including college and the pros): High ankle sprain in '05 - missed four games. Broken collar bone in '06 - missed rest of season after October 14. Torn LCL in '07 - out for one month. Three straight years with a significant injury - that's a #2 pick? If he stays healthy, he's obviously going to be one of the top fantasy running backs in the game, but if I'm lucky enough to get a high pick, I like to use it on someone with potential and durability. Addai dealt with some nagging minor injury issues last season, but none were serious enough to force him to miss time aside from one game (week 5). His performance lagged in the second half due to a series of injuries to tackles Tony Ugoh, Ryan Diem, and Daniel Federkeil, as well as receivers Harrison and Gonzalez. It's pretty clear that it was the team's health issues, not his own, that limited Addai in the second half. Whether or not Peterson is injured this season, don't expect him to get as many carries as he did last year, not after the heart attacks suffered by every member of the Vikings organization when he went down. Chester Taylor could start on many teams and the Vikings would be crazy not to use him to spell Peterson as much as possible. I don't expect a 50-50 split, but 70-30 doesn't seem farfetched.
- Tony Richardson, the fullback who cleared holes for Peterson last season, is now a Jet. They replaced him with the more-than-adequate Thomas Tapeh (formerly of the Eagles), but Richardson was a major piece of the puzzle in Minnesota and it isn't yet clear what effect his departure will have. The Vikes' starting left tackle, Bryant McKinnie, may also miss some time due to off-the-field issues.
- Compare the teams. I'd rather take a major piece of a perennial contender than the star of a team with an unproven (to put it lightly) QB and an unbalanced defense (great vs. the run, horrible vs. the pass) which will likely be frequently playing from behind. Addai owners will have plenty of opportunities to watch him gobble up those cherished garbage-time yards.
- Pass-catching. In a PPR league? In that case, Addai (41 catches for 364 yards in '07) is unquestionably a better pick than Peterson (19 for 268).
Clearly, the only major concern here is Peterson's injury history. With his explosive talent, he's the kind of player that gamblers love - high risk, huge potential reward. I think Addai has a very high ceiling, with much lower risk than Peterson.
Are there any other players who deserve to be in this discussion? There are a couple you might look at depending on your league's rules (cough Steven Jackson cough cough Brian Westbrook cough), but that's a topic for another post... or the comments, if you're so inclined.
« Previous post: Cedric Benson waived by Chicago Bears | Next post: Update: EA Sports Fantasy Football now live »
Delicious
Digg
Fark
Google Bookmarks
Stumbleupon
Technorati Favorites
21 comments
1 trackback
RSS 2.0
Bloglines
Live
MyAOL
MyYahoo
Netvibes
Newsgator
Rojo
21 comments
#1. ffexchange, 4 months ago
Steven Jackson, without a doubt. My reasons:
1) New offensive coordinator that gave Larry Johnson and Priest Holmes monster fantasy seasons.
2) Also had an unhealthy team, that should be much healthier.
3) Played well with an awful offense, if Addai's problem was the health of his offense, he wasn't able to overcome it like Jackson was.
4) Put up similar yards to Addai playing fewer games.
5) No competition. It is Jackson's job, Addai now has Rhodes to take some carries from him.
6) Still young and not a lot of wear, especially not playing a full season last year.
If he stays healthy, I think he could be the number 1 Fantasy RB.
#2. Matt, 4 months ago
I do like Jackson a lot, but he's a little banged up right now and the Rams in general are a huge question mark. If their defense is as bad as it was last season, we'll see a whole lotta Bulger and not so much Jackson.
Regardless, Jackson's definitely in the my five.
#3. Jake, 4 months ago
Peterson's bigger potential gives me more than Addai's better team. Yes, the Vikes will be playing from behind a lot, but don't forget that Peterson was near the league lead in carries of 20+ yards, and may be as good an option as a Tavaris Jackson 20+ yard pass.
I know the history, but I'm more willing to accept the injury risk than the risk of regretting passing him over!
#4. Matt, 4 months ago
That's where we're different, Jake.
For me, a #2 pick should be someone you can reasonably expect to be durable throughout the season (though that's obviously never a given in the NFL).
#5. Jake, 4 months ago
My comments are based mostly on my recent drafting history: Shaun Alexander, Rudi Johnson, Cedric Benson, etc. Now it's like, if I'm gonna strike out anyway, I'm going down swinging!!
Of course, drafting like that will likely assur me a low standing at the end =(
#6. Lee, 4 months ago
Ya know Matt, I was thinking the same thing. You can't draft "potential" at number two. One thing I'm keeping in mind is that Chester Taylor is still there and is going to be a part of the offense. They are talking about putting them both in the backfield at the same time...more potential carries taken away.
In a post I put up today I looked at the average carries of each team, the leader on the team in average carries, and the average carries that went to other players. The Vikings came in #28 for the average number of carries the leader (Peterson) lost to others in a game. Now with that, they run the ball a ton and he averaged 17 per game. Given his game breaking ability he will still be a monster...just maybe not every week.
I like a little more of a sure thing at #2. To be honest I hope I don't land that high this year. I would be happy being as far back as 4-5, take who falls to me (instead of being stressed I took the wrong guy) and get to pick sooner in the 2nd.
I'm not real concerned about Addai with Rhodes coming back but it certainly will take some carries. Actually, Addai only averaged 3 more carries per game last year than 2006...
#7. The Advisor, 2 months ago
Brian Westbrook would be my #2 pick all day, no doubt.
#8. Matt, 2 months ago
I like Westbrook a lot, but to own him is to wake up in a cold sweat every night after another nightmare about his knee.
#9. Brian, 2 months ago
WOW, T.Rich will lead to AD's numbers falling off? T.Rich hardly lead any AD runs, check out the record setting day and he was in front of AD once on a goal line plunge.
Wouldn't Marvin getting injured make Addai get MORE touches?
After AD was injured he came back and was getting a similar percentage of carries.
If your comparing teams and defenses, Minnesota's "unbalanced" is a lot less of a concern than Indy's "proven" d..... Check out how Minnesota's D did last season. Rarely were the Vikings down early and having to play catch up. If anything I think Minnesota's D increases RB touches, more of a grind it out ball control game.
I like both RB's but AD is clearly the better player. I'd go S.Jax #2 and AD#3 in standard, #4 behind West in PPR.
Good read but some of your points just aren't legit.
#10. Matt, 2 months ago
1) I doubt you're right about Richardson only leading AD once on his big day, but in any case, he was instrumental throughout the rest of the season.
2) Harrison's injury (along with all the others) affected the offense as a whole, and while it might have led to more TOUCHES, it obviously affected the balance of the offense and allowed defenses to key in on stopping the run.
3) The point I was making is that Indy will be playing with the lead more often than Minnesota, plain and simple. Do you disagree?
#11. Brian, 2 months ago
#1 Doubt all you'd like. Look it up http://www.nfl.com/videos?videoId=09000d5d803e06db Richardson had little to do with the record setting day or any of AD's carries. He was not instrumental but think whatever you want guru. LOL
#2 When has a Defense keyed in on stopping Indy's run game? Other than short yardage it hasn't happened since 1998, and 2007 was no different.
#3 It's impossible to say who will play with the lead more. I do know that Minnesota will not be getting blown out with a solid defense and ball control offense.
Like I said earlier, good read but you have no basis for your opinions.
Week 2 do you start Addai against the Vikes run D or Peterson vs the Colts run D?
#12. Matt, 2 months ago
#1: So let me get this straight - you're trying to make the argument that a fullback who made the Pro Bowl had "little to do with" any of the team's star running back's carries? And you provide nothing more than a highlight reel as your supporting evidence? LOL indeed.
#2: They keyed in on the run when the receivers were hurt. Obviously. The proof's in the pudding, too - Addai's numbers went down when Harrison and Gonzalez were hurt (not to mention the other offensive players who were also down at the time). So like I said, Addai's decreased performance in the second half was due to team injuries, not his own performance.
#3: It's impossible to say who will play with the lead more? Really? Over the past five seasons, the Colts are 63-17 and the Vikes are 40-40. If you want to bet the Vikes will enter more quarters with the lead this season than the Colts, please let me know how much money you'd like to put down on that and you're on. (Really.)
#13. Advisor, 2 months ago
One good thing about Peterson though, is that he doesn't have to face the Vikings D. That in itself helps him a lot. (Seriously)
#14. Advisor, 2 months ago
My top 5 looks something like this..
1) LT
2) B. Westbrook
3) AP
4) S. Jax
5) Addai
#15. Daniel, 1 month ago
I won a 12 team league last year with Addai and Jones-Drew as my running backs. I agree that Addai is #2. Consistency is key, and he has that.
#16. Andrew, 28 days ago
I have Addai and he sucks balls! I guess we all make mistakes.
#17. Brandon, 27 days ago
Hah...let's make it known that Brandon recommended taking Adrian Peterson with the second pick...but LT is also sucking, so who knows....so is Steven Jackson for that matter....and Larry Johnson...
#18. Matt, 27 days ago
Hadn't counted on Addai's offensive line being decimated... yikes. Hopefully they pull it together.
#19. advisor, 27 days ago
For the record, I recommended Brian Westbrook with the #2 pick about 2 months ago in the comments above.. Check it out.
3 TDs against Dallas, YEAH!!
#20. antonio, 19 days ago
hahaha and now westbrook is facing an ankle injury which brings us back to matts comment about waking up in a cold sweat every night after another nightmare injury
#21. Matt, 19 days ago
Exactly. I wasn't going to come back to my old thread to say "told ya so," but...
Write a comment
If you want to add your comment on this post, simply fill out the next form:
You can use these XHTML tags: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>.
1 trackback
To notify a mention on this post in your blog, enable automated notification (Options > Discussion in WordPress) or specify this trackback url: http://www.ffgeekblog.com/advice/why-joseph-addai-not-adrian-peterson-should-be-2-on-your-cheat-sheet/trackback/