Fantasy football would be a lot easier if things were a little more predictable in the NFL. We'd be tearing a little less of the hair out of our heads on a weekly basis if it weren't for the marquee stars who quietly and inexplicably fade into oblivion, the no-name backups who suddenly outperform the starter and eat into his playing time, and the rookies who come out of nowhere and bestow championships upon the fantasy player savvy/lucky enough to nab them off the waiver wire. As a result, we have a natural, perhaps wishful tendency to think and act as if there are some inexorable truths in football, especially during the draft. But, as the saying goes, when you assume...

Exhibit A: LT had a lights-out, monster season in 2006. At this point, it just feels obvious: He is to the RB position what Peyton is to the QB position. It feels like it's been that way for a while, and it certainly seems clear that it will stay that way. But with the help of the Wayback Machine, I dug up a few expert opinions, circa August 2006, on who would be the dominant rusher last season. Here's the Yahoo! expert consensus:

Just one year ago, not one of the Yahoo! experts would have taken LT with the first pick. And I'm not busting on them - the consensus everywhere was that you basically couldn't go wrong with LJ, SA, or LT in the top spot. A year later, LJ and Alexander aren't even mentioned in the same breath as LT. He's a Greek god; they're just great running backs.

Quick - name the Chiefs kick returner who scored a bunch of touchdowns in 2003 and was in the running for MVP. If you can't remember his name, this might help you look him up: he was recently traded to the Rams for a 5th round pick. Ouch.

My point here is that paradigms shift very quickly in fantasy football. Don't think that just because you have LT, Steven Jackson, or another top RB, you don't need to continue to invest much in the position for the rest of the draft because you're "all set" at RB. Fantasy football makes quick work of players who don't handcuff their "indestructible" stars or build depth at the key positions. Players who aren't fully aware of the potential sitting on the waiver wire are doomed to watch someone else's gamble pay off. And fantasy players with a concrete mindset about the way things are in the NFL might as well not even show up on draft day.