The Fantasy Football Geek Blog

These four wide receivers stand out to me as representing the “first tier” of overvalued wideouts – guys whose names frequently leap off the page to me as I review power rankings from around the web. Someone in your league will draft one of these players far too early. Don’t let it be you.

Steve Smith, Panthers

Why you might draft him: You think Delhomme’s elbow will be fine. You remember Smith’s 2005 season (1563 yards, 12 TD) and, like many fantasy football players, are under the impression that he’s had a few seasons like that one.

Why you shouldn’t: He hasn’t. Steve Smith is possibly the most overvalued fantasy football player in the NFL. He’s had one elite season, and three good ones. He proved last season that he’s mediocre without Delhomme, whose arm is supposedly improving – but I don’t see too many people lining up to take Delhomme in mock drafts this year. He’s five-foot-nine, dependent on his speed, and 29 years old – so how explosive can he be these days? I’m guessing he’s lost a step, will never have another season like 2005, and will have another immensely disappointing season if Delhomme’s elbow isn’t 100% by week 1.

Where he’ll go: Pick 22-28.

Take him if he’s still available at: Pick 35 or later.

Jerry Porter, Jacksonville

Why you might draft him: He’s finally escaped from the fantasy vacuum that is Oakland. He is, or at least was, one of the best all-around athletes in the league.

Why you shouldn’t: He’s a little old to be a sleeper (29), and that shows already, thanks to the hammy he pulled in May. Troy Williamson, not Porter, is going to be the Jags’ big-play guy. He’s spent his entire career enticing fantasy owners with his talent and “what if” scenarios. At this point, I’ll believe it when I see it. The Jags are a rushing team; do you really want their #2 WR as your #3?

Where he’ll go: Pick 85-95.

Take him if he’s still available at: Pick 115 or later.

Nate Burleson, Seattle

Why you might draft him: He’s Hasselbeck’s #1 target, at least until Deion Branch returns.

Why you shouldn’t: Coach Holmgren isn’t exactly overflowing with praise for the butterfingered Burleson. He plans to use him quite a bit on special teams. If Bobby Engram settles his contract dispute and is available to start the season, that’s terrible news for Burleson owners. Over the four mid-season games that Branch missed last season, Engram had 33 catches for 395 yards, while Burleson had 15 for 185. Hasselbeck clearly prefers to throw the ball Engram’s way. And Branch won’t be gone all season, either. Consider Burleson’s hold on the top spot in Seattle extremely tenuous at best.

Where he’ll go: Pick 80-90.

Take him if he’s still available at: Pick 110 or later.

Marvin Harrison, Indianapolis

Why you might draft him: He’s Marvin Frickin’ Harrison. You think he’ll avoid a suspension over his legal woes. You also think he’s reasonably likely to have recovered enough from his knee injury to be close to full speed.

Why you shouldn’t: He’s Marvin Frickin’ Harrison – which means that, thanks to name recognition alone, in most leagues someone’s going to spend a ridiculously high draft pick on an aging receiver with a probably-chronic knee condition and potential legal woes. You’re going to have to spend more than he’s worth if you want him, which is a great way to draft a crappy fantasy football team. And no matter how healthy he is, Reggie Wayne’s the go-to guy in Indy now anyway.

Where he’ll go: Pick 65-75.

Take him if he’s still available at: Pick 90 or later.