By Matt on Wednesday, November 14, 2007

Rumblin', Bumblin', Stumblin' - Fantasy Football Player Value Adjustments - Week 11

Here's a look at the guys who spent their time in week 10 doing one of three things: rumblin' up the player value charts with big performances, bumblin' through a rough week and making their owners nervous, or stumblin' so badly that their fantasy value took a major hit.

Rumblin

Brett Favre: Why couldn't he play 'til he's 40?

D.J. Hackett: I liked Hackett to have a big game in week 9, but apparently I was a week too soon for his coming-out party. Even when Branch comes back (which seems likely to be this week), I like Hackett as a #3 WR.

Terrell Owens: Three straight 100-yard games, and four straight with at least one score. Romo's officially made everyone forget about the botched hold, and Owens is reaping the rewards.

Jeremy Shockey: Finally had the kind of game (129 yards, 1 TD) that everyone's been waiting for. He more than doubled his previous season high with 12 receptions. With Plax's ankle hurting, he'll probably be more involved the rest of the way.

Chester Taylor: He didn't do anything to deserve it, but he went from a virtual nobody to a definite somebody in the fantasy world when A-Pete's LCL went "pop."

Brian Westbrook: Three straight weeks with at least a score, and his second monstrous performance of the season. He's got a nose for the end zone, and can be a matchup-changing factor on any given week.

Selvin Young: Against a not-entirely-terrible Kansas City defense, he showed Shanahan that he's worthy of taking over for Henry (20 carries, 109 yards, 1 TD).

Bumblin

Marion Barber: Correct me if I'm wrong here, but isn't Barbercubed a way, way more talented runner than Julius Jones? I suppose I can't question Wade Phillips when he's winning games, but I get the sense that if you'd just give Barber enough carries (say, like the 19 he got in week 7, which he turned into 96 yards for a 5.1 YPC avg), he'd be a stellar feature back. But Phillips keeps doing things like waiting until the end of the game to plug him in for Jones, at which point he was only capable of 12 carries for 34 yards. I'm not a football coach, but doesn't that seem like a good way to completely kill the preparation and motivation of one of your most talented players?

Drew Brees: From Rumblin' to Bumblin' in one week, on the basis of a 272 yard, 2 TD, 2 INT performance? Well, normally that wouldn't happen, but it was in a shootout with St. Louis - shouldn't he have been lights-out brilliant? I also couldn't help but notice that his four bad games have come against defenses that are good against the pass (passing-yards-allowed rank in parentheses): the Colts (2), Bucs (3), Titans (7) and Panthers (14... OK, they're just respectable). His four good games, meanwhile, have been against the Seahawks (24), Falcons (11), 49ers (15), and Jaguars (27). Now he has a middling fantasy game against a middling Rams defense (18), and he's got the Texans (13), Panthers (14), Bucs (3), Cards (10), Eagles (22 - whew), and Bears (16). What I'm getting at here is that so far he generally hasn't been able to rise to the occasion against good defenses, and there's only one bad one left on his schedule.

Lee Evans: His failure to do much against Miami (4 catches, 65 yards), even with Losman at the helm, is a reminder after three strong weeks that Evans is still as streaky as ever.

Antonio Gates: I'm not sure what the deal with Philip Rivers is (perhaps he's allergic to Chris Chambers?), but until he gets himself figured out, Gates' numbers are going to suffer.

Jamal Lewis: Did nothing at all against Pittsburgh, whose rushing defense is stellar, but still - 2.2 YPC and 2 fumbles? He's a bad play against Baltimore this week too - he had just 2.8 YPC against them in week 4. Things get a lot easier after that, as Lewis finishes the season against an array of crappy rush defenses - Texans (24), Cardinals (11, but I'm not buying them being that good), Jets (32! J-E-T-S-WOW-THEY-SUCK!), Bills (20), Bungles (27), and, if your league's championship is in week 17, you'll probably be happy to start him against the 49ers (25).

Maurice Morris: Yeah, 3.1 yards per carry, 1 touchdown, and a lost fumble sounds about right for Morris, who'll never be a long-term starter on any NFL team... ever. But with that said - it's better than what Alexander's been able to do this season.

Stumblin

Chris Chambers: See my comments above about Gates. Why's Chambers down here and Gates up there? Because if Rivers does get back on track, you know Gates will get his share. It's a little less certain that Chambers will.

Kevin Curtis: His 20-yard performance just led me to check, and, sure enough, he's only been a good fantasy play twice this season. He had that monster 3-TD game against Detroit and a nice 121-yard, 1-TD game against the Jets, and he's been fantasy poop otherwise. Bench him, or better yet, trade him.

J.P. Losman: Just when everyone wanted to get excited about him again (well, everyone out here in western NY), he puts up another stinker (against MIAMI?!) and people start talking about Edwards again. Sigh. At least he gets Miami and Cleveland in weeks 14 and 15, so he's not a terrible guy to stash on your bench for QB depth during the fantasy playoffs. I mean, he can't have two bad games against the Dolphins in one season. Right?

Adrian Peterson: Can't help but notice that we're not hearing much from the folks who pooh-poohed the notion that Peterson's injury history and upright, vulnerable running style were cause for concern.

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