With nine weeks of data in the books on this year’s NFL team defenses, it’s now pretty clear which matchups you should absolutely love to see on your players’ schedules for the remainder of the season.
Passing Defense
Worst of the Worst:
Detroit Lions: They allow a whopping 263 passing yards per game, including games where they gave up 358 to Brees, 340 to Campbell, 358 to Rodgers, and 329 to Hasselbeck. And only the Titans (who I’ll get to in a minute) have allowed more passing TDs.
Kansas City Chiefs: Only ten sacks on the season, second-worst in the league, and only three interceptions, which is obviously the worst. (Interesting aside – the Redskins, who give up the fewest yards per game, are tied with the Browns for the second-fewest INTs – just four.)
Jacksonville Jaguars: They can’t do a thing right against the pass. They’re sixth-worst in passing touchdowns allowed, fifth-worst in INTs with just five picks, the absolute worst in the league at getting to the QB with just eight sacks, and they give up the seventh-most passing yards per game.
Mediocre at Best:
Tennessee Titans: Statistically speaking, they’re the worst in the NFL, hands down, but they’re finally getting healthy and Jeff Fisher hasn’t gone anywhere. Since the return of cornerback Cortland Finnegan and nickelback Vincent Fuller, they’re 2-0, including a win over a decent 49ers team. I don’t think they’re anywhere near good yet, but they’re also not nearly as bad as they were just a few weeks ago.
Arizona Cardinals: They give up the fourth-most yards per game (247) along with the 8th-most TDs. They’ve looked a little better lately, but their high-powered offense leads to a lot of shootouts. Even in a losing effort, Jay Cutler threw for 369 yards and three touchdowns against them last week.
Rushing Defense
Worst of the Worst:
Buffalo Bills: Opposing offenses have been able to run over the Bills’ injury-decimated defense all season long. They give up 174 rushing yards per game, worst in the league, and have allowed a dozen rushing scores, tied with three other teams for second-worst. Opposing teams run the ball nonstop against them, averaging 34 rushes per game, tied for third. If your fantasy RB is matched up against the Bills, you can more or less rest assured that he’ll get the ball all day and do his best Jim Brown impression on every carry. Just to give you an idea of how bad they are, Jamal Lewis has only topped 70 yards once this season – when he burned the Bills for 117.
Cleveland Browns: Speaking of the Browns, they’re almost as bad against the run as the Bills, giving up the same number of TDs and almost as many yards per game (171, second-worst in the league). The Browns are always playing from behind, so running backs get lots of work against them, 35 carries per game (also second-worst).
Oakland Raiders: Teams just love to run the ball against them, averaging 36 carries per game, most in the league. And for good reason: They give up the fourth-most rushing yards per game and more rushing touchdowns than any other team. The sad thing for the Raiders is that they’re plenty talented on defense and have a well-respected defensive coordinator in John Marshall, but the offense is simply unable to stay on the field – only Buffalo, KC and Jacksonville spend less time on offense than the Raiders.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Bills, Browns, Raiders and Bucs all allow over 160 rushing yards per game. After that, the next-worst team is Kansas City, who allows 136. I think it’s pretty clear where we need to draw the “Worst of the Worst” line.
Mediocre at Best:
St. Louis Rams: They’re one of the four teams tied for second-most rushing TDs allowed (12). They also allow the sixth-most rushing yards per game (135).
Kansas City Chiefs: Yeah, they give up a lot of yards on the ground (136 per game, fifth-worst in the league), but at least they’re sort of OK in the red zone, tied for tenth-worst with eight rushing TDs allowed. OK, I’m being charitable. They suck.


e-roc 9:49 am on 11/11/2009 Permalink |
Does this imply that you’re giving the edge to the Chiefs this weekend v. Oakland? Who’s going to suck less?
Matt 9:55 am on 11/11/2009 Permalink |
I’d prefer to pretend that game doesn’t exist.
The don 3:06 pm on 11/11/2009 Permalink
Speak to me ohh fantasy gods i have a choice
sidney rice
Brandon Marshall
Kevin Smith ( rb)
Who deserves my starting roster spot this week?
oh and calvin johnson
Squish 8:54 pm on 11/11/2009 Permalink
A lot of my sources like Sidney Rice this week so think about taking him. Kevin Smith is the obvious option to me but I like taking a chance on Rice this week. You can’t expect much from Marshall against Washington’s pass defense and they should be WAY ahead all day. CJ hasn’t shown he’s fully healed yet so I’d wait to begin starting him again.
So your real choices are Sidney Rice or Kevin Smith. The problem is that both of them have a downside. Rice won’t be getting too many looks because his team won’t need to pass and he’s got all kinds of competition at WR on his own team.. Kevin Smith gets looks but has done next to nothing with them. He has only 1 run over 20 yards all season and is averaging only 3.3 YPC. In the end I’d say take Smith if you only need 8 or 9 points (the highest projection I’ve seen for him in PPR is 16 with a low of 4) and Rice if you’d like more upside (I’ve seen PPR projections as a high as 24 points with a low of 7.8).
My personal pick is Rice in both standard and PPR.
Squish 8:15 pm on 11/11/2009 Permalink |
Great post Matt. I’ve been tracking things more in my head but it’s really nice to see it all spelled out on the same page! I’ve definitely been planning to have these playoff matchups anywhere I can.
As I said a few weeks ago it was a good idea to target Hightower who was low value then. I traded for him in several leagues and now my mouth is watering over his SF, DET, STL series of matchups which have Arizona as a team ranked in the top 5 of projected playoff fantasy scoring in every standard FF position.
As it is now, for weeks 14-16 the top 5 at each position for projected (based on the average points given up by the teams on their schedule those weeks) are:
QB – Hard to be able to do anything here. All the good QBs are already taken. However, Henne may be a viable fill-in down the stretch for Ryan and Orton owner’s (ranked 32nd worst and 27th worst playoff QB schedules respectively)
1. SD
2. MIA
3. STL
4. ARI
5. NO
RB – Watch the Jamaal Charles/Kolby Smith situation very closely. Go after Hightower if you can. I guarantee he pays off down the stretch. Also be the first to jump on Fred Taylor if he comes back.
1. KC
2. NE
3. WAS
4. ATL
5. ARI
WR – I’m ignoring STL and MIA because their offenses suck but at this point consider trading AJ or R. Moss for VJ or Fitz for a matchup upgrade down the stretch.
1. MIA
2. STL
3. SD
4. NO
5. ARI
TE – More or less doesn’t mean anything since they don’t have reliable options (save SF)
1. TEN
2. CIN
3. SF
4. ARI
5. HOU
DEF – Keep these in mind especially because a lot of them are available. I’ve had defenses in the Championship game win me as many titles as any other position.
1. NYG
2. NE
3. ARI
4. BAL
5. OAK
Anyway, just thought I’d add some stuff in. For a wider range of values go here:
http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/strength_of_schedule.cfm
Matt 9:54 pm on 11/11/2009 Permalink |
Nice post yourself!
Squish 10:53 pm on 11/11/2009 Permalink
Thanks! I really just more or less combined data I found on different sites. No big hassle there. I meant to add kicker rankings but I can’t seem to find a way to edit my posts
Squish 10:55 pm on 11/11/2009 Permalink |
Nice! Just realized you guys got a mention at FFLibrarian! Great job!
http://www.fflibrarian.com/2009/11/heading-into-week-10-with-first-tnf.html
Matt 12:01 pm on 11/12/2009 Permalink |
She’s awesome. I credit our “discovery” by the fantasy football community in 2007 in large part to the weekly link love she was sending us.
Daily Haze: Thursday Night Football Start & Sit | The Hazean 8:01 am on 11/12/2009 Permalink |
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