The Fantasy Football Geek Blog

As we begin to amp up and get ready for the 2008 fantasy football season, I thought it was time to begin our weekly Ask the Geeks column, so we begin with a question from Mark regarding the Jacksonville Jaguars running game this season:

I had a fantasy football question for you that has me perplexed. I’m a big Jaguars fan, but I’m not sure when to take Freddy T or MJD. Taylor is the starter, but can he remain healthy? How much time will they split? Will Greg Jones be in the mix? Should I avoid them all together? I see MJD in the top 15 on most lists, but I feel like Fred did better last year. I’m thinking Taylor would be an awesome #2-3 RB, but I’m trying really hard to be unbiased. I’d appreciate your thoughts.

Brandon’s take: After a breakout rookie season, in which he scored 15 touchdowns and racked up over 1300 all-purpose yards, it was widely speculated that there was a changing of the guard taking place in the Jacksonville backfield. Fred Taylor had just reached the magical age of 30, where a running back starts breaking down and can no longer perform to their peak level. However, in 2007, the man nicknamed “Fragile Freddy” continued to produce, even making the Pro Bowl for the first time in his career.

2006
Fred Taylor – 1146 rushing yards – 242 receiving yards – 6 touchdowns (5 rush, 1 receive)
Maurice Jones-Drew – 941 rushing yards – 436 receiving yards – 15 touchdowns (13 rush, 2 receive)

2007
Fred Taylor – 1202 rushing yards – 58 receiving yards – 5 touchdowns (5 rush)
Maurice Jones-Drew – 768 rushing yards – 407 receiving yards – 9 touchdowns (9 rush)

As you can see by 2007 stats above, even though Taylor rushed for more yards, MJD is still the primary back in the passing game, as well as on the goal line, and at the age of 32, I can’t see Taylor improving on last years stats. However, I’m willing to consider MJD’s stats as almost a “sophomore slump”, and I expect big things from him this year in-line with the numbers he put up his rookie year. I see Maurice as a top 15 pick, while Taylor would make a solid RB2 or RB/WR play, but can be drafted two or three rounds later. In touchdown heavy leagues, MJD should be ranked even higher. On the topic of Greg Jones, don’t draft him unless you have either Taylor or MJD and are looking for a hand-cuff in case of injury.

Matt’s take: Sweet, the first AtG of 2008! A reminder: If you’d like to Ask the Geeks (we try to post as many questions and answers as we can every week), use the contact form and choose “Ask the Geeks” in the “Select a contact reason” drop-down.

As I’ve mentioned before, I’m a particularly risk-averse fantasy drafter, and as such I’ve never drafted Fred Taylor. Despite his relative success over the past two seasons (I say “relative” because of his anemic TD numbers), I simply can’t bring myself to trust Fragile Freddy – especially not a 33-year-old Fragile Freddy. I think this is one of those situations where recent performance simply does not justify a high player valuation. Despite all I’ve read about how he’s in the best shape of his life and plans to stay in the league and shoot for an elite spot in the record books, I still see him as a player with a long and distinguished injury history who’s 33 years old and plays the most physically punishing position in football.

Also worth pointing out: RotoTimes is reporting that MJD will be the starter this season, with Taylor in a relief role. If that information is true (I haven’t been able to find it corroborated elsewhere), then the days of Taylor getting more yardage than MJD are probably over. Since MJD’s already obviously the Jags’ goal-line choice, and considering Taylor’s injury history, it’s hard for me to see Taylor as much more than an OK bye-week replacement and handcuff to MJD. At this point, pending verification of the RotoTimes report, I consider him a decent but risky RB3, or a very solid RB4. MJD’s a low-end RB1, awesome RB2.